Abstract: We examine whether changes in issuer credit ratings by the three main providers are associated with changes in systemic risk. First, we find that rating downgrades result in an increase in bank systemic risk, whereas upgrades do not proportionally reduce systemic risk. Second, we document that the positive relationship between rating downgrades and systemic risk can be mitigated by accounting-based stability factors, such as profitability and capital, but also enhanced by sovereign rating downgrades. Finally, we show that sovereign rating downgrades have a greater effect on bound banks’ systemic risk compared to non-bound banks.

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Abstract:

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the relationship between societal trust and bank asset opacity using an international sample of banks. Design/methodology/approach: The authors use an international data set of banks and panel regressions. For robustness purposes, the authors use multiple measures of both societal trust and bank opacity as well as two-stage least squares regressions to address endogeneity concerns.

Findings: The authors find that societal trust is negatively associated with the opacity of bank portfolios.

Practical implications: Results of this study inform regulators on the importance of trust for the banking sector and support policies towards enhancing trust in banks. Also, a sustained environment of high levels of trust in banks can prevent the introduction of extensive prudential regulations that policymakers often use to establish trust, as well as lower the additional resources required when trust levels are low.

Originality/value: To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines this relationship. The literature provides only limited evidence and not for the banking sector, for which opacity is of outmost importance.

Abstract: This paper empirically investigates the transmission of systemic risk across the Euro Area by employing a Global VAR model. We find that a union aggregate systemic risk shock results in a sharp decline in output, with two thirds of the response to be attributed to cross-country spillovers. The results indicate that peripheral economies have a disproportionate importance in spreading systemic risk compared to core countries. Then, we incorporate high-frequency monetary surprises into the model and we find evidence of the risk-taking channel of monetary policy. However, the relationship is reversed in the period of the ZLB, when expansionary shocks mitigate systemic risk. Cross-country spillovers account for a significant fraction (17.4%) of systemic risk responses’ variation. We also show that near term guidance reduces systemic risk, whereas the initiation of the QE program has the opposite effect. Finally, the effectiveness of monetary policy exhibits significant asymmetries, with core countries driving the union response.

Abstract: This Note documents developments in the commercial real estate (CRE) market in Ireland since the onset of the COVID-19 shock as well as examining the factors determining the outlook. The CRE market is important to monitor from a financial stability perspective owing to its size and systemic interlinkages to both the real economy and the wider financial system. We show that the CRE market in Ireland has experienced a downward adjustment in valuations since the onset of the COVID-19 shock with the retail sector particularly affected. We highlight that components of the CRE market such as the retail and office sectors are particularly vulnerable to both near-term and structural implications of the COVID-19 shock such as the rise of online shopping and increased working from home practices. We combine a range of analytical approaches including forecast modelling techniques, the extension of the growth-at-risk framework to CRE and scenario analysis to assess the potential downside risks to the CRE market in Ireland.

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Abstract: This is the first paper to examine the role of the real estate sector and housing unaffordability in the determination of systemic risk. We measure the systemic risk of the UK by employing the Delta CoVaR method developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016). and we explore both its cross-sectional and time series behaviour. Regarding the former, we show that when the real estate sector is under distress the tail risk of the entire financial system increases significantly. With respect to the latter, the findings of our dynamic model suggest that sustainable house prices positively contribute to the stability of the financial sector; whilst house price exuberance and rapid increases in housing unaffordability amplify systemic risk. Finally, we examine the conjecture that the banking sector comprises a transmission channel from the housing market to systemic risk. Our empirical results are in line with this argument and highlight the key role of housing unaffordability.

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